Why Blake Bortles is a top-five fantasy quarterback for 2016
KC JoynerESPN Insider
There is a higher percentage of starting-quality prospects at quarterback than at any other position in fantasy football.
That trend causes many fantasy owners to wait until later rounds to draft a quarterback. The best-case scenario in this instance is to find a quarterback with enough consistency to be a weekly starter, but one who also has the type of upside potential to vastly outperform his average draft position (ADP).
A lot of quarterbacks may come to mind as fitting this description, but one who seems to be flying under the radar is Blake Bortles. There is a strong case to be made that Bortles is a top-five-caliber fantasy quarterback.
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[h=2]Elite fantasy production last season[/h]Let's start by noting Bortles already has a top-five fantasy mark under his belt, after he finished fourth in this category last season with 302 points. This was a higher point total than either Drew Brees (299) or Aaron Rodgers (286) posted, and was only the 28th time since 2001 that a quarterback has posted 300 or more fantasy points.
[h=2]Upper-tier numbers at every route depth level[/h]Bortles was tied for second last season with 35 touchdown passes and ranked seventh with 4,428 passing yards, but what really stood out most about his metrics last year was his ability to post upper-tier numbers at every route depth level.
[h=2]Upper-tier numbers at every route depth level[/h]Bortles was tied for second last season with 35 touchdown passes and ranked seventh with 4,428 passing yards, but what really stood out most about his metrics last year was his ability to post upper-tier numbers at every route depth level.
He rated first in stretch vertical passing yards (1,289 on targets traveling 20 or more yards downfield), second in vertical passing yards (2,534 on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield), tied for sixth in vertical touchdowns (14), and tied for sixth in stretch vertical touchdowns (eight).
This led to his placing fifth in vertical fantasy points (133) and fifth in stretch vertical fantasy points (71), but Bortles also ranked tied for ninth on short pass fantasy points (147). The ability to put up top-notch numbers regardless of the route depth level illustrates the range of Bortles' passing abilities.
[h=2]Vastly improved bad decision rate[/h]What makes the downfield passing largesse even more impressive is Bortles did this while simultaneously cutting his bad decision rate (BDR) in half. BDR measures how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team. Bortles posted a 3.1 percent BDR in 2015, a total that was worst in the league, but cut that rate nearly in half with a 1.6 percent BDR in 2016.
This tremendous decision-making improvement should give Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley the confidence to continue to let Bortles air the ball out early and often.
[h=2]Prime time consistency[/h]Bortles ranked tied for second among quarterbacks in start percentage in Tristan Cockroft's 2015 year-end fantasy football consistency ratings. This statistic measures the number of times that a player's point total in a given week was worthy of having had him active in an ESPN standard league. Bortles met this criterion in nine out of 16 starts, a pace exceeded only by Tom Brady (68.8 percent start mark) and equaled by Cam Newton.
[h=2]Not reliant on one primary pass catcher for fantasy production[/h]Last year, Bortles tallied 100 fantasy points on passes to Allen Robinson and 73 points on targets directed at Allen Hurns.
To put those point totals into perspective, consider that last season the Tom Brady-to-Rob Gronkowskiconnection helped Brady post 89 fantasy points. Robinson and Hurns certainly aren't as great at their position as Gronkowski is at tight end, but getting this type of fantasy production out of two targets means Bortles won't be reliant on a single pass catching option to get his fantasy points.
[h=2]Julius Thomas could make it an elite pass catching trio[/h]Thomas broke his hand at the beginning of the 2015 preseason slate, an injury that caused him to miss most of training camp as well as the first four games of the 2015 regular season. That Thomas was able to post 46 receptions and five touchdowns in 12 games despite not getting into sync with this offense during training camp speaks volumes for his talent level.
Thomas is reported to have hit a groove with Bortles during organized team activities, so he should be able to help Bortles rack up a lot more than the 32 fantasy points he tallied on targets to Thomas last season.
[h=2]Rushing ability[/h]Bortles also has an upside path on the ground. Last year he rushed for 310 yards and two touchdowns, totals that led him to rank tied for seventh in quarterback fantasy points on rushing plays (39).
This is not an anomaly, as Bortles ranked fifth in quarterback rushing fantasy points in 2014 (39). He also placed seventh among FBS quarterbacks in percentage of rushes that resulted in a touchdown over the course of the 2012 and 2013 campaigns (10.7 percent) and placed 20th in red zone rushing yards in that same time frame (122).
If defenses end up devoting too much attention to keeping Robinson, Hurns, Thomas and the 1-2 rushing punch of Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon in check, Bortles could easily top his ground game production from last year.
[h=2]Bottom line[/h]It isn't often that a top-five fantasy quarterback has a path to post an even better season in the follow up campaign. This doesn't make it a given that Bortles tallies top-five fantasy quarterback numbers, but the combination of consistency and upside elements noted above indicates Bortles is a steal at his current mid-ninth round ADP (in 10-team leagues) that ranks 10th among quarterbacks.
KC JoynerESPN Insider
There is a higher percentage of starting-quality prospects at quarterback than at any other position in fantasy football.
That trend causes many fantasy owners to wait until later rounds to draft a quarterback. The best-case scenario in this instance is to find a quarterback with enough consistency to be a weekly starter, but one who also has the type of upside potential to vastly outperform his average draft position (ADP).
A lot of quarterbacks may come to mind as fitting this description, but one who seems to be flying under the radar is Blake Bortles. There is a strong case to be made that Bortles is a top-five-caliber fantasy quarterback.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=2]Elite fantasy production last season[/h]Let's start by noting Bortles already has a top-five fantasy mark under his belt, after he finished fourth in this category last season with 302 points. This was a higher point total than either Drew Brees (299) or Aaron Rodgers (286) posted, and was only the 28th time since 2001 that a quarterback has posted 300 or more fantasy points.
[h=2]Upper-tier numbers at every route depth level[/h]Bortles was tied for second last season with 35 touchdown passes and ranked seventh with 4,428 passing yards, but what really stood out most about his metrics last year was his ability to post upper-tier numbers at every route depth level.
[h=2]Upper-tier numbers at every route depth level[/h]Bortles was tied for second last season with 35 touchdown passes and ranked seventh with 4,428 passing yards, but what really stood out most about his metrics last year was his ability to post upper-tier numbers at every route depth level.
He rated first in stretch vertical passing yards (1,289 on targets traveling 20 or more yards downfield), second in vertical passing yards (2,534 on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield), tied for sixth in vertical touchdowns (14), and tied for sixth in stretch vertical touchdowns (eight).
This led to his placing fifth in vertical fantasy points (133) and fifth in stretch vertical fantasy points (71), but Bortles also ranked tied for ninth on short pass fantasy points (147). The ability to put up top-notch numbers regardless of the route depth level illustrates the range of Bortles' passing abilities.
[h=2]Vastly improved bad decision rate[/h]What makes the downfield passing largesse even more impressive is Bortles did this while simultaneously cutting his bad decision rate (BDR) in half. BDR measures how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team. Bortles posted a 3.1 percent BDR in 2015, a total that was worst in the league, but cut that rate nearly in half with a 1.6 percent BDR in 2016.
This tremendous decision-making improvement should give Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley the confidence to continue to let Bortles air the ball out early and often.
[h=2]Prime time consistency[/h]Bortles ranked tied for second among quarterbacks in start percentage in Tristan Cockroft's 2015 year-end fantasy football consistency ratings. This statistic measures the number of times that a player's point total in a given week was worthy of having had him active in an ESPN standard league. Bortles met this criterion in nine out of 16 starts, a pace exceeded only by Tom Brady (68.8 percent start mark) and equaled by Cam Newton.
[h=2]Not reliant on one primary pass catcher for fantasy production[/h]Last year, Bortles tallied 100 fantasy points on passes to Allen Robinson and 73 points on targets directed at Allen Hurns.
To put those point totals into perspective, consider that last season the Tom Brady-to-Rob Gronkowskiconnection helped Brady post 89 fantasy points. Robinson and Hurns certainly aren't as great at their position as Gronkowski is at tight end, but getting this type of fantasy production out of two targets means Bortles won't be reliant on a single pass catching option to get his fantasy points.
[h=2]Julius Thomas could make it an elite pass catching trio[/h]Thomas broke his hand at the beginning of the 2015 preseason slate, an injury that caused him to miss most of training camp as well as the first four games of the 2015 regular season. That Thomas was able to post 46 receptions and five touchdowns in 12 games despite not getting into sync with this offense during training camp speaks volumes for his talent level.
Thomas is reported to have hit a groove with Bortles during organized team activities, so he should be able to help Bortles rack up a lot more than the 32 fantasy points he tallied on targets to Thomas last season.
[h=2]Rushing ability[/h]Bortles also has an upside path on the ground. Last year he rushed for 310 yards and two touchdowns, totals that led him to rank tied for seventh in quarterback fantasy points on rushing plays (39).
This is not an anomaly, as Bortles ranked fifth in quarterback rushing fantasy points in 2014 (39). He also placed seventh among FBS quarterbacks in percentage of rushes that resulted in a touchdown over the course of the 2012 and 2013 campaigns (10.7 percent) and placed 20th in red zone rushing yards in that same time frame (122).
If defenses end up devoting too much attention to keeping Robinson, Hurns, Thomas and the 1-2 rushing punch of Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon in check, Bortles could easily top his ground game production from last year.
[h=2]Bottom line[/h]It isn't often that a top-five fantasy quarterback has a path to post an even better season in the follow up campaign. This doesn't make it a given that Bortles tallies top-five fantasy quarterback numbers, but the combination of consistency and upside elements noted above indicates Bortles is a steal at his current mid-ninth round ADP (in 10-team leagues) that ranks 10th among quarterbacks.
